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  • Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
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  • On November 9, 2016—and again on January 6, 2021—many Americans feared that our democracy was on the verge of collapse. But is it? In an erudite and brilliant evaluation of the current state of our government, noted constitutional scholar Burt Neuborne administers a stress test to democracy and concludes that our unprecedented sets of constitutional protections, all endorsed by both major parties, stand between us and an authoritarian federal regime: namely the division of powers between the three branches, the rights reserved to the states, and the Bill of Rights.
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  • Microsoft Excel offers unsurpassed functionality and accessibility for data exploration and analysis to millions of users around the world. And learning to unlock its full potential is easier than you can imagine with help from Excel All-in-One For Dummies.
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  • New perspectives on the misinformation ecosystem that is the production and circulation of fake news.
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  • A bold, thought-provoking pathway to the national solidarity that could, finally, address the ills of racism in America
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  • Discover the power and benefits of yoga for outdoor adventures. With The Outdoor Adventurer’s Guide to Yoga, athletes and explorers can tailor yoga practices to support performance, recovery, and longevity, no matter their sport. This fully illustrated guide covers the foundations of yoga, anatomy, alignment, breath work, and asana, then applies these practices specifically for hiking, backpacking, cycling, climbing, paddling, and snow sports.
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