Using up-to-date financial and demographical data, Robert Dekle finds that the answer to this question is an emphatic yes.
The aging of the population currently under way will steadily lower Japan’s savings rate from 30 percent of GDP today to 19 percent of GDP in 2040, while Japan’s total investment rate will decline from 28 percent of GDP today to about 22 percent of GDP in 2040. Given the more rapid decline in total saving, Japan’s current account will steadily narrow from its current level and turn to deficit around 2015. Understanding Japanese Saving holds key lessons for Western nations undergoing similar demographic transformations as well as for developing countries looking to establish public savings institutions.
–BOOK JACKET.